post by maccuaig...
Re: Arianne Announces a 43-101 Inferred Resource Estimate of 304 Mt of Phosphorus
posted on Mar 28, 09 10:13AM
OK, I did a bit more research and found that titanium ilmenite recent pricing was USD $100 - $125 / tonne, which makes more sense. The table below shows my valuation of this deposit, with the following notes:
1. Press release refers to "tons" instead of "tonnes" (imperial versus metric). Conversion of tons to tonnes is 1 ton = .9072 tonnes.
2. Price of metals is USD/tonne, hence the need to convert to tonnes.
| DAR - LAC A PAUL (INFERRED) |
|
| Resource (in tons) |
304,000,000 |
| Grade - Phosphorous (P2O5) (%) |
6.18% |
| Grade - Titanium (TiO2) (%) |
7.81% |
| Recovery - Phosphorous (%) |
90% |
| Recovery - Titanium (%) |
50% |
| Recovered Metal - Phosphorous (tonne) |
15,339,373 |
| Recovered Metal - Titanium (kg) |
10,769,553 |
| Phosphorous Price (US$/tonne) |
$200.00 |
| Titanium Price (US$/tonne) (ilmenite) |
$100.00 |
| Market Value USD (phosphorous) |
$3,067,874,611 |
| Market Value USD (titanium) |
$1,076,955,264 |
| Total Market Value (USD) |
$4,144,829,875 |
| Total Market Value (CAD @ 1.24) |
$5,139,589,045 |
| No. of Shares Outstanding |
100,000,000 |
| In-the-Ground Value per Share (5%) |
$2.57 |
Market outlook for phosphorous and titanium are very positive.
Research report on DAR website is encouraging, although a bit scant on details.
Nevertheless, given the above valuation, this stock seems grossly undervalued in my opinion. I noticed a huge wall of stock went up at $0.045 when new was released; generally a good sign as the market players try to squeeze out the little guys, but also means we may sit down at these levels for a long time.
Do your own due diligence, and good luck with your trading.
